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How will the Kursk incursion affect the overall course of the Ukraine-Russia war by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Accelerate Ukrainian victory • 25%
Prolong the conflict • 25%
Lead to peace negotiations • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or official statements from Ukrainian or Russian governments
Story
Ukraine's Kursk Incursion Shifts War Dynamics, Claims 1,000 Square Kilometers
Aug 14, 2024, 01:50 PM
Ukraine has launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, catching Moscow off guard and potentially shifting the dynamics of the ongoing conflict. This bold move, reportedly planned in secrecy, aims to unsettle the Kremlin and has left Western officials stunned. Despite the shock value of the attack, Kyiv has not disclosed its specific objectives, leading to speculation about its strategic intentions. The incursion may have diverted experienced Ukrainian soldiers from the crucial Donbas front, raising questions about its long-term impact on the war. Ukraine claims control over 1,000 square kilometers of territory, marking a significant development in its military campaign. Kyiv had weighed a shock strike for some time to throw the Kremlin off balance. One week into the attack, Kyiv remains tight-lipped about the goals.
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Significant escalation • 25%
Minor escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
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Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
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Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia retains control of Kursk • 25%
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Ceasefire in Kursk region • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold captured territory • 25%
Russian forces recapture all territory • 25%
Stalemate with contested areas • 25%
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Ukraine maintains control • 25%
Russia retakes all lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Mutual withdrawal under a ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ukrainian forces withdraw completely • 25%
Ukrainian forces maintain current positions • 25%
Ukrainian forces advance further • 25%
Ukrainian forces are repelled further into Ukraine • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate/No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine maintains control over parts of Kursk • 25%
Russia regains full control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukrainian forces successfully hold territory • 25%
Russian forces repel Ukrainian forces • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
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Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ukrainian forces maintain control • 25%
Russian forces reclaim control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
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Successful for Ukraine • 25%
Successful for Russia • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%