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What will be the impact of the Kursk incursion on the Donbas front by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Russian gains • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or official statements from Ukrainian or Russian governments
Story
Ukraine's Kursk Incursion Shifts War Dynamics, Claims 1,000 Square Kilometers
Aug 14, 2024, 01:50 PM
Ukraine has launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, catching Moscow off guard and potentially shifting the dynamics of the ongoing conflict. This bold move, reportedly planned in secrecy, aims to unsettle the Kremlin and has left Western officials stunned. Despite the shock value of the attack, Kyiv has not disclosed its specific objectives, leading to speculation about its strategic intentions. The incursion may have diverted experienced Ukrainian soldiers from the crucial Donbas front, raising questions about its long-term impact on the war. Ukraine claims control over 1,000 square kilometers of territory, marking a significant development in its military campaign. Kyiv had weighed a shock strike for some time to throw the Kremlin off balance. One week into the attack, Kyiv remains tight-lipped about the goals.
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Significant escalation • 25%
Minor escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia retains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire in Kursk region • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
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Other • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold captured territory • 25%
Russian forces recapture all territory • 25%
Stalemate with contested areas • 25%
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Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia repels all attacks • 25%
Stalemate with minor territorial changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ukraine retains control of captured territories • 25%
Russia reclaims all territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
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Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
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Ukrainian forces withdraw completely • 25%
Ukrainian forces maintain current positions • 25%
Ukrainian forces advance further • 25%
Ukrainian forces are repelled further into Ukraine • 25%
Ukraine maintains control over parts of Kursk • 25%
Russia regains full control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukrainian forces withdraw successfully • 25%
Ukrainian forces face significant losses • 25%
Russian logistics significantly disrupted • 25%
Stalemate with no significant outcome • 25%
Ukraine maintains control • 25%
Russia retakes all lost territory • 25%
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Mutual withdrawal under a ceasefire agreement • 25%