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Market
Will Ukraine's offensive in Kursk lead to significant territorial gains by November 30, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian or Russian governments; major news outlets such as BBC, Reuters, or Associated Press
Story
Ukraine's Kursk Offensive Disrupts Qatar Ceasefire Talks on Energy Strikes with Russia
Aug 17, 2024, 12:03 PM
Ukraine and Russia were reportedly on the verge of sending delegations to Doha, Qatar, to negotiate a partial ceasefire agreement aimed at halting strikes on each other's energy and power infrastructure. This potential agreement was seen as a significant step towards reducing hostilities. However, the negotiations were disrupted following Ukraine's surprise cross-border offensive in the Russian region of Kursk. While Russia did not entirely cancel the talks, they requested more time, leading to a postponement of the discussions. The talks were being facilitated by Qatar and were considered a landmark effort to ease tensions between the two nations.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine retains control of captured territories • 25%
Russia reclaims all territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia retains control of most areas • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
