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What will be the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk region by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified reports from major news outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, BBC, and Reuters
Story
Russia Withdraws 5,000 Troops as 11,000 Ukrainian Troops Attack Kursk
Aug 17, 2024, 11:11 PM
Russia has withdrawn up to 5,000 troops from Ukraine to reinforce defenses in its Kursk region, following a significant Ukrainian military offensive. The Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine has deployed approximately 11,000 reserve troops, including elite units, for the attack on Kursk, with 6,000 directly participating and 4,000 in support roles from the Sumy region. Western military estimates suggest that the Ukrainian forces aim to capture and hold territory in Kursk, although experts question Ukraine's ability to maintain control. The Russian government, according to the Wall Street Journal, may require over 20,000 troops to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the area. The ongoing conflict has led to the evacuation of more than 3,000 residents from the Kursk region.
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Ukraine retains control of captured territories • 25%
Russia reclaims all territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia repels all attacks • 25%
Stalemate with minor territorial changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold captured territory • 25%
Russian forces recapture all territory • 25%
Stalemate with contested areas • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukrainian forces withdraw successfully • 25%
Ukrainian forces face significant losses • 25%
Russian logistics significantly disrupted • 25%
Stalemate with no significant outcome • 25%
Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ukrainian forces take additional territory • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold current territory • 25%
Russian forces reclaim some territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia retains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire in Kursk region • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia retains control of most areas • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels the offensive • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Russian forces repel Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine gains significant territory • 25%
Ukraine consolidates minor gains • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Russia regains lost territory • 25%