Loading...
Market
What percentage of US TikTok users will migrate to Xiaohongshu by February 28, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 25% • 25%
25% to 50% • 25%
51% to 75% • 25%
More than 75% • 25%
Reports from digital analytics firms or surveys
Story
Facing January 19 Ban, 'TikTok Refugees' Shift to China's RedNote App
Jan 14, 2025, 07:34 PM
With a potential TikTok ban looming in the United States, American users—dubbed 'TikTok refugees'—are flocking to the Chinese social media app Xiaohongshu, known as RedNote or 'Little Red Book.' The U.S. Supreme Court appears inclined to uphold a law requiring TikTok's China-based parent company, ByteDance, to divest from the app by January 19, 2025, or face a nationwide ban. TikTok has announced plans to shut off its app for U.S. users on that date unless the Court intervenes. As the deadline approaches, users are seeking alternatives to continue sharing and consuming short-form video content. Xiaohongshu, which boasts over 300 million monthly active users, has seen a surge in downloads, topping app store charts in the U.S. and U.K. This unexpected migration has led to increased cultural exchange between American and Chinese users, with both sides adapting to bridge language and cultural gaps. If the ban is enforced, TikTok would likely be removed from app stores, preventing new users from downloading it, but existing users may still retain access on their devices for a limited time.
View original story
Similar markets
Adds automatic translation • 25%
Relaxes content moderation • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Platform banned • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base stable • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
Data not available • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
150-170 million • 25%
Over 170 million • 25%
Less than 100 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Data privacy concerns • 25%
Cultural exchange interest • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Potential TikTok ban • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Other • 25%
No Change • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by less than 20% • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%