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What changes in military alliances will occur following the leak by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New US-Israel agreement • 25%
New Iran-Russia agreement • 25%
New regional coalition • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments or credible news agencies
Story
Israel Indefinitely Delays Iran Strike After Leak of US Top-Secret Attack Plans
Oct 24, 2024, 11:35 AM
Israel has delayed its planned retaliatory strike against Iran after highly classified Pentagon documents detailing Israeli attack plans were leaked, according to reports from The Times and other sources. The leaked documents, dated October 15 and 16, appeared to be top-secret assessments from the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and revealed details of Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles and drones. The leak was published last week on a pro-Iranian Telegram channel. An intelligence source told The Times that Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict patterns of attack. As a result, Israel has been forced to develop an alternative plan requiring detailed war gaming before action can be taken. The retaliatory strike has been postponed indefinitely as Israel adjusts its strategies to prevent Iran from anticipating the attack.
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Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Strengthened NATO ties • 25%
New military alliances • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
New defense strategies • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
NATO increases support • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
North Korea-Russia alliance • 25%
South Korea strengthens US ties • 25%
New regional alliance forms • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Iran gains new allies • 25%
Israel gains new allies • 25%
Both gain new allies • 25%
No change in alliances • 25%
New alliance forms • 25%
Current alliances strengthen • 25%
Alliances weaken significantly • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened alliances with Russia • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
No change • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
NATO expands military support to Ukraine • 25%
CSTO strengthens support for Russia • 25%
New military alliance forms • 25%
No change in military alliances • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened alliance with new agreements • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tensions increase without formal changes • 25%
Formal reduction in military cooperation • 25%