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Market
How will military alliances change due to US missile policy on Ukraine by Dec 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
NATO expands military support to Ukraine • 25%
CSTO strengthens support for Russia • 25%
New military alliance forms • 25%
No change in military alliances • 25%
Official announcements from NATO, CSTO, or other military alliances
Story
US Eases Missile Controls for Ukraine, Biden Aides Aim to 'Trump-Proof' Policy Amid North Korean Involvement
Nov 21, 2024, 08:35 PM
The United States has decided to relax missile controls concerning Ukraine, a move influenced by North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war and Donald Trump's recent electoral victory. Biden aides view this easing of controls as part of a strategy to 'Trump-proof' U.S. policy towards Ukraine. This change in policy may allow U.S. allies to utilize their weapons in new capacities, reflecting a significant shift in the U.S. approach to the ongoing conflict.
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NATO increases support • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
New defense strategies • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Strengthened NATO ties • 25%
New military alliances • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New strategic direction • 25%
NATO and Allies • 25%
BRICS • 25%
ASEAN • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes more restrictive • 25%
Policy becomes more permissive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
US expelled from NATO • 25%
NATO sanctions US • 25%
US policy unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%