Loading...
Market
Primary Reason for Success/Failure of US-UAE Syria Plan by Dec 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad's cooperation • 25%
Iran's influence • 25%
Regional instability • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Analyses from political experts or reports in major news outlets
Story
US, UAE Discuss Lifting Syria Sanctions in Israel-Lebanon Deal if Assad Cuts Ties with Iran, Hezbollah
Dec 2, 2024, 12:22 PM
The United States and the United Arab Emirates have discussed the potential lifting of sanctions on Syria. According to sources cited by Reuters, the proposal hinges on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad distancing his government from Iran and halting the supply of weapons to Hezbollah. The discussions reportedly aim to reduce Hezbollah's influence in the region as part of a broader Israel-Lebanon deal, but the strategy has faced criticism, with some describing it as foreign policy malpractice. Critics argue that Assad, seen as closely aligned with Iran, is unlikely to act against Tehran’s interests.
View original story
Similar markets
Partial transition • 25%
Successful transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
Syria halts Hezbollah weapons transfers • 25%
Sanctions lifted • 25%
No change • 25%
Syria cuts ties with Iran • 25%
Increased military intervention • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Sanctions maintained, ties maintained • 25%
Sanctions maintained, ties cut • 25%
Sanctions lifted, ties cut • 25%
Sanctions lifted, ties maintained • 25%
US maintains limited presence • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
US fully withdraws from Syria • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic recognition • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Increased Stability • 25%
Continued Chaos • 25%
Strengthened U.S. Presence • 25%
Withdrawal of U.S. Forces • 25%
Increase in troop numbers • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Reduction to core 900 troops • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Significant reduction in ISIS presence • 25%
Increase in ISIS presence • 25%
Moderate reduction in ISIS presence • 25%
No change in ISIS presence • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increased support for Turkey's stance • 25%
Increased support for Syrian groups • 25%
Maintaining current policy • 25%
Significant reduction in ISIS activity • 25%
Increased U.S. military involvement • 25%
U.S. withdrawal from Syria • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%