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What will be the outcome of US foreign policy shift in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
US fully withdraws from Syria • 25%
US maintains limited presence • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from major geopolitical think tanks or reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Signals End to US Involvement in Syria, Cites 600,000 Russian Troop Losses
Dec 7, 2024, 06:20 PM
US President-elect Donald Trump has signaled a shift in US foreign policy regarding Syria. Trump stated that the US would cease involvement in Syria’s civil war, suggesting a possible end to support for Kurdish-led forces in the region. He emphasized that Syria is 'not our fight' and that events there should unfold without US intervention. Trump also stated 'Do Not Get Involved,' highlighting a non-interventionist stance. Additionally, he pointed out Russia's weakened position due to its war in Ukraine, claiming that Russia has lost over 600,000 troops and is unable to effectively support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This marks a potential departure from previous US policies in the region.
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Increased support for Turkey's stance • 25%
Maintaining current policy • 25%
Increased support for Syrian groups • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Military support to rebels • 25%
Continued non-involvement • 25%
Sanctions on Syria • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Reduction to core 900 troops • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Increase in troop numbers • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
More foreign bases allowed • 25%
Existing bases maintained • 25%
Reduction in foreign bases • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
Successful transition • 25%
Partial transition • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Increased Stability • 25%
Continued Chaos • 25%
Withdrawal of U.S. Forces • 25%
Strengthened U.S. Presence • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%