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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire after six weeks?
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Steve Witkoff•Donald Trump•Middle Eastern•Israel•Hamas•Witkoff•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Arab•The Times of Israel•Biden•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from the United Nations, Israeli government statements, or credible news sources
Story
Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff Influences Netanyahu to Secure Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Hostage Release by January 20
Jan 15, 2025, 05:45 PM
Steve Witkoff, President-elect Donald Trump's special envoy for Middle Eastern affairs, played a pivotal role in securing a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Witkoff held a tense meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, urging him to accept necessary compromises to finalize the agreement by January 20. According to two Arab officials cited by The Times of Israel, Witkoff's influence during this meeting was more effective than the efforts of the Biden administration throughout the year. The pressure from Witkoff and the anticipation of Trump's inauguration on January 20 were credited with moving the negotiations forward, resulting in an agreement in principle between Israel and Hamas. The deal, which is expected to be finalized soon, includes a six-week ceasefire and the release of hostages.
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Other outcome • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Complete cessation of hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Partial reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%