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Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement fail before end of Phase II?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•United States•Israel•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Trump•Biden•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news organizations
Story
Netanyahu Assured by Biden and Trump of US Support and Weapons Return for Gaza Fighting if Ceasefire Fails
Jan 17, 2025, 11:09 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed his cabinet that he has received assurances from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump that the United States will support Israel's return to intense fighting in Gaza if negotiations on Phase II of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas fail and Hamas does not accept Israel's security demands. Netanyahu also stated that upon Trump's inauguration, Israel will receive back all the weapons that were previously seized or denied by the Biden administration. This assurance is considered crucial as it would provide Israel with additional tools to resume fighting if necessary. The Israeli government has approved a deal with Hamas that includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for over 1,700 Palestinian detainees during the first phase of the ceasefire, which is set to last 42 days and begin on Sunday.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All hostages returned • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Other • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
