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Will Israel conduct a significant military operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from reputable news agencies such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera confirming a significant military operation
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Israeli Ministers Assert Military Freedom, Establish Buffer Zone Along Northern Border
Dec 1, 2024, 10:59 AM
Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have made strong statements regarding Israel's stance on Hezbollah and its activities near the northern border. Gantz emphasized Israel's freedom to act against any threats from Hezbollah, regardless of their proximity to the border. Smotrich, serving as Finance Minister, declared that Israel will not wait for international mechanisms to address threats and will continue to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah from restoring its capabilities. He also challenged France and other guarantor nations of the ceasefire agreement, asserting Israel's right to maintain military freedom in Lebanon. Additionally, Smotrich announced that the Israeli Cabinet has decided to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding infrastructure and homes destroyed by the IDF along the northern border, effectively creating a de facto buffer zone in the region.
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