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Market
Which coalition will form the German government after the Feb 23, 2025 elections?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
SPD-Greens • 25%
CDU/CSU-FDP • 25%
SPD-CDU/CSU • 25%
Other • 25%
Official coalition announcement from the German government and media reports
Story
Scholz Faces Confidence Vote Today, Expected Loss to Trigger February 23 Elections
Dec 16, 2024, 05:29 AM
On December 16, 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to face a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, which he is expected to lose, paving the way for snap elections on February 23. The move comes after his coalition government collapsed in November due to disagreements over economic policy, leadership, and experience. By intentionally losing the vote, Scholz aims to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections. The Greens have indicated they will abstain from the vote to facilitate this outcome. Despite Scholz remaining confident that he will succeed himself, he is considered the most unpopular Chancellor in the history of the Federal Republic. New OECD figures show that almost half of Germans distrust the government. Previous SPD Chancellors have used the confidence vote to initiate early elections. This is the first time in almost 20 years that a German Chancellor has taken this step.
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Green-led coalition • 25%
AfD-led coalition • 25%
Social Democrats-Greens • 25%
Conservatives-Greens • 25%
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CDU/CSU and SPD • 25%
CDU/CSU and Greens • 25%
SPD and Greens • 25%
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Other/Coalition • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition or party wins • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) • 25%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) • 25%
Alliance 90/The Greens • 25%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) • 25%
SPD-Greens-FDP • 25%
SPD-CDU-Greens • 25%
CDU-FDP-Greens • 25%
Other • 25%