Market
Will U.S.-Canada trade discussions result in a new agreement by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Canadian and U.S. governments
Story
Trump Proposes Canada as 51st State, Promises Better Health Coverage and Tax Cuts Amid 25% Tariff Threat on February 1
Jan 26, 2025, 02:23 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Canadians would benefit from 'much better' health coverage and a 'tremendous' tax cut if Canada were to become the 51st state of the United States. Trump made these remarks during a briefing in North Carolina, suggesting that such a move would eliminate tariffs between the two countries. He also mentioned his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports starting February 1, emphasizing that the U.S. does not need Canada's cars, lumber, and food products. Trump's comments come amidst ongoing discussions about the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, which supports 3.7 million jobs across both nations and involves $3.6 billion in daily trade. Canada's total forestry exports alone were valued at $45.6 billion in 2022.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs reduced but no free trade • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No Tariffs Agreement • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Reduced Tariffs Agreement • 25%
Increased Tariffs • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Free trade agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs implemented • 25%