Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Canada trade discussions by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. or Canadian governments or reputable news sources
Story
Trudeau Dines with Trump at Mar-a-Lago Amid 25% Tariff Threat
Nov 30, 2024, 03:00 AM
On Friday night, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an unannounced trip to Florida, where he dined with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Trudeau's plane was spotted heading to West Palm Beach, fueling speculation about a meeting amid recent tariff threats. Earlier in the week, Trump had threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug smuggling. The two leaders discussed trade, border security, fentanyl, and the potential tariffs during their meeting. Following the dinner, Trudeau described the conversation as 'excellent', though specific details were not disclosed.
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Other • 25%
No agreement, tariffs implemented • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs avoided through agreement • 25%
Partial tariffs imposed • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
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Other • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Negotiated resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs avoided with agreement • 25%
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Tariffs imposed • 25%
Temporary tariff suspension • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened economic ties • 25%
Formal merger talks • 25%