Market
Will Canada and the U.S. sign a new trade agreement by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Canadian and U.S. governments or verified news outlets
Story
Trudeau and Foreign Minister Joly Reject Trump's Annexation Comments: 'No Chance Canada Joins U.S.'
Jan 7, 2025, 07:45 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau firmly dismissed the idea of Canada becoming part of the United States. "There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau stated. He emphasized that "workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partner." Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, added, "Canada will never back down in the face of Donald Trump's threats." Trudeau's remarks were in response to comments by Donald Trump suggesting the integration of Canada into the U.S.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
No agreement, tariffs implemented • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
China • 25%
Mexico • 25%
None • 25%
Canada • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Comprehensive economic integration • 25%
Security agreement • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%