Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. proposed tariffs on Canadian exports by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs delayed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or trade department
Story
Trump Proposes Canada as 51st State, Promises Better Health Coverage and Tax Cuts Amid 25% Tariff Threat on February 1
Jan 26, 2025, 02:23 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Canadians would benefit from 'much better' health coverage and a 'tremendous' tax cut if Canada were to become the 51st state of the United States. Trump made these remarks during a briefing in North Carolina, suggesting that such a move would eliminate tariffs between the two countries. He also mentioned his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports starting February 1, emphasizing that the U.S. does not need Canada's cars, lumber, and food products. Trump's comments come amidst ongoing discussions about the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, which supports 3.7 million jobs across both nations and involves $3.6 billion in daily trade. Canada's total forestry exports alone were valued at $45.6 billion in 2022.
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Similar markets
No significant change • 25%
Exports decrease by >10% • 25%
Exports decrease by <5% • 25%
Exports decrease by 5-10% • 25%
Tariffs not implemented • 25%
Tariffs partially implemented • 25%
Tariffs fully implemented • 25%
Tariffs removed after implementation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs delayed • 25%
Tariffs averted through negotiation • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed by both • 25%
Tariffs imposed by U.S. only • 25%
Tariffs imposed by Canada only • 25%
No tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No change • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Implemented with full effect • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Tariffs not implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated to a lower rate • 25%
Tariffs indefinitely postponed • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increase in exports • 25%
Decrease in exports • 25%
No change in exports • 25%
Data unclear or mixed • 25%
Reduced Tariffs Agreement • 25%
No Tariffs Agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs reduced but no free trade • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Tariffs • 25%
Free trade agreement reached • 25%