Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Canada trade negotiations by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No Tariffs Agreement • 25%
Reduced Tariffs Agreement • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Tariffs • 25%
Free trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs reduced but no free trade • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Official trade agreement announcements by Canadian or U.S. governments
Story
Trump Proposes Canada as 51st State for Tax Cuts, Better Health Coverage, and No Tariffs
Jan 24, 2025, 05:18 PM
President Donald Trump has reiterated his proposal for Canada to become the 51st state of the United States, suggesting that such a move would benefit Canadian citizens with significant tax cuts and improved health coverage. Speaking during a visit to North Carolina, Trump claimed that if Canada were to become a state, it would not face tariffs on its exports to the U.S., and Canadians would enjoy a 'tremendous tax cut' due to their current high tax rates. He further stated that as a state, Canada would not need to worry about military expenses and would have 'much better health coverage.' Trump's comments come amid ongoing tensions over trade, with the U.S. president criticizing Canada for being 'very nasty' and 'unfair' in trade relations.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Canada becomes U.S. state • 25%
New tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement, tariffs implemented • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Improved • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to trade war • 25%
Formal trade agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
No tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed by both • 25%
Tariffs imposed by Canada only • 25%
Tariffs imposed by U.S. only • 25%