Market
Will there be international intervention in response to the M23 offensive in Goma by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international organizations or news agencies
Story
Mass Prison Break of 3,000 Inmates in Goma Amid M23 Offensive, Fatalities Reported
Jan 27, 2025, 10:35 AM
A mass prison break occurred at Munzenze prison in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Monday morning amidst an offensive by the M23 rebel group. The prison, which holds approximately 3,000 inmates, was reportedly set ablaze as prisoners escaped into the surrounding streets. The escape was facilitated by the M23 movement entering the city, with reports of heavy artillery fire heard in the city center. There have been fatalities reported during the escape, though specific numbers have not been disclosed. Footage has emerged showing prisoners fleeing from the north east corner of the prison.
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No significant international action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Sanctions on Rwanda • 25%
Peacekeeping forces deployed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Military Intervention • 25%
International Mediation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Negotiated ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
M23 halted before reaching Goma • 25%
M23 captures Goma • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
