Market
What will be the next major military leadership change in China by 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Defense Minister appointed • 25%
Another senior military official removed • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements by the Chinese government or credible news reports
Story
Pentagon Report: Corruption Disrupts China's 2027 Military Goals Amid Rapid Nuclear Expansion to 1,000 Warheads by 2030
Dec 18, 2024, 03:09 PM
The Pentagon's annual report on China's military power reveals that corruption within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may have disrupted China's progress towards its 2027 military modernization goals. Chinese President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign has led to the removal of at least 15 senior military officers and defense industry executives, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, between July and December 2023, potentially impacting the PLA's readiness and morale. Despite these challenges, the report highlights that China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear forces, increasing its operational nuclear warhead arsenal from 500 to 600 within a year. This expansion is part of a broader military buildup, which includes the addition of hundreds of new missiles to its arsenal. The Pentagon also notes that China is on track to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, indicating a significant growth in its nuclear capabilities.
View original story
Similar markets
Existing leadership remains • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No changes • 25%
Other response • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
Current Commander Remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation Ceased • 25%
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
New diplomatic agreements • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Shared leadership structure • 25%
Leadership unknown • 25%
Marhaf Abu Qasra remains acting • 25%
Position abolished • 25%
New Minister appointed • 25%
Marhaf Abu Qasra confirmed as permanent Minister • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Resignation of IDF Chief • 25%
Resignation of a key government minister • 25%
Other Changes • 25%
Military Leadership Change • 25%
Diplomatic Leadership Change • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%