Market
Will there be a leadership change in Hamas by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
Both leaders replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Official announcements from Hamas or verified news reports
Story
Israeli Forces Recover Body of Youssef Ziyadne, Father of 19, from Gaza Tunnel
Jan 8, 2025, 04:24 PM
The Israeli military has recovered the body of Youssef Ziyadne, a 53-year-old Bedouin man from Rahat, from an underground tunnel in the Rafah area of Gaza. Ziyadne, the father of 19 children, was abducted by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and was killed while in captivity. The operation also uncovered evidence related to his son, Hamza Ziyadne, raising serious concerns for his life. The recovery of Ziyadne's body comes amid ongoing efforts to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages, with about 98 hostages still believed to be held by Hamas, including 36 who have been declared dead.
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Other leadership outcome • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
Other organizational changes • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Khaled Mashal • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Other • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Leadership unchanged • 25%
Weakened leadership • 25%
Strengthened leadership • 25%
Leadership transition • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Significant policy shift • 25%
Other • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Mohammed Sinwar remains leader • 25%
Collective leadership council reinstated • 25%
Change in both • 25%
No change • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
New leader elected • 25%