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Will there be a leadership change or policy shift in Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Significant policy shift • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements or reports from major news outlets
Story
Biden Announces Gaza Ceasefire: Three Hostages Released to Israeli Custody, 90 Palestinian Prisoners to Follow
Jan 19, 2025, 04:03 PM
President Joe Biden announced that a ceasefire in Gaza has taken effect, marking a significant development in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The ceasefire led to the release of the first three Israeli hostages by Hamas, who were handed over to Israeli custody. Biden emphasized the cessation of hostilities, stating, 'After so much pain, destruction, and loss of life, today the guns in Gaza have gone silent.' The ceasefire deal, which Biden outlined in May, also involves the entry of hundreds of aid trucks into Gaza to provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict. The release of the hostages is part of a broader agreement that includes the planned release of around 90 Palestinian prisoners by Israel later on the same day.
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Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
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