Market
Will there be a leadership change in Hamas or Israel due to the ceasefire by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Official announcements from Hamas or Israeli government, or verified reports from international news agencies
Story
Trump Doubts Gaza Ceasefire, Cites 33 Hostage Release by Hamas
Jan 21, 2025, 01:25 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a lack of confidence in the ceasefire agreement in Gaza during a statement from the Oval Office on Monday evening. Trump, who made these remarks while signing executive orders on the first day of his second term, described the conflict as 'not our war' but 'their war.' He also characterized Gaza as a 'phenomenal location' with potential for rebuilding due to its seaside position and favorable weather conditions. The ceasefire, which began on Sunday, is part of a multi-phase plan that includes the release of 33 hostages by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza. The agreement, initially drafted under the Biden administration, received direct support from Trump and his advisors during the negotiation process.
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Significant policy shift • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Change in both • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
Policy shift by Hamas • 25%
Policy shift by Israel • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
Both leaders replaced • 25%
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New leader appointed • 25%
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Leadership dispute • 25%
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Current leader remains • 25%
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Hamas leadership change • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Change in military policy • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
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