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Will there be a change in control of northern Syrian territories by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased control by Turkey • 25%
Increased control by YPG • 25%
Control remains unchanged • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies detailing territorial control changes
Story
Turkey's Erdoğan Vows to Eliminate All Terror Groups in Syria at AK Party Congress, Zero Tolerance for YPG Occupying One-third of Syria
Jan 18, 2025, 01:59 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirmed Turkey's commitment to eliminating all terrorist organizations in Syria, stating that this could be achieved either peacefully or through force. Speaking at the AK Party's 8th Annual Provincial Congress in Mersin, Erdoğan emphasized that Turkey has 'zero tolerance' for the YPG, a group he accused of occupying one-third of Syria. He indicated that the government plans to take decisive action to resolve the issue with the YPG and prevent new scenarios from unfolding in the region. Erdoğan's remarks reflect ongoing tensions regarding the presence of various armed groups in Syria, which he claims jeopardize Turkey's security.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
PKK/YPG gains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
YPG • 25%
Other Kurdish groups • 25%
Other factions • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Syrian government regains control • 25%
YPG retains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Control remains contested • 25%
Controlled by YPG • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Turkey • 25%
Controlled by other factions • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Turkey gains more control • 25%
SDF retains control • 25%
Türkiye gains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Other local factions • 25%
Syrian government forces • 25%
Turkey-backed forces • 25%
Kurdish militants • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
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Rebel Forces • 25%
Kurdish Forces • 25%
ISIS or other extremist groups • 25%
Syrian Government Forces • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Israeli-backed forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Syrian Democratic Forces • 25%