Market
Will Qatar mediate a second phase of ceasefire agreement by March 1, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Qatar, Israel, and Hamas, news reports
Story
Qatar Brokers Deal: Arbel Yehud, Agam Berger to be Released Thursday, Palestinians Return via Netzarim Corridor
Jan 26, 2025, 10:07 PM
Qatar has announced a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitating the release of hostages and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. Under the agreement, Hamas will release civilian Arbel Yehud, soldier Agam Berger, and another hostage on Thursday, with three more hostages to be freed on Saturday. In exchange, Israel will allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza starting Monday morning via the Netzarim Corridor. This deal comes after a period of tension where Israel had delayed the return of Palestinians to the north due to the non-release of Arbel Yehud as initially scheduled. Hamas has also provided Israel with a list detailing the status of all hostages to be released during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, and Israel will submit a list of 400 Palestinians arrested since Oct. 7, 2023, every Sunday. The agreement aims to address the displacement of around 650,000 Palestinians caused by the 15-month war.
View original story
Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Some hostages released and highway opened • 25%
All hostages released and highway opened • 25%
No hostages released but highway opened • 25%
No hostages released and highway not opened • 25%
Neither plays a major role • 25%
Both play equal roles • 25%
Qatar plays a major role • 25%
U.S. plays a major role • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Broad support and praise • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mostly criticism • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%