Market
Will there be a significant diplomatic incident between Russia and the US by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Major news outlets reporting on a diplomatic incident
Story
Russia Urges Citizens to Avoid US, Canada, EU Travel Amid Increased Confrontation
Dec 11, 2024, 11:13 AM
The Russian Foreign Ministry has issued a stark warning to its citizens, advising them to avoid travel to the United States, Canada, and some EU countries due to heightened risks. The ministry cited the deteriorating relations with the US, describing the situation as teetering on the verge of rupture. Maria Zakharova, the ministry's spokesperson, emphasized that Russian citizens have become targets for US intelligence agencies, facing potential detention risks in the US and its satellite states. The advisory comes amidst increased confrontation between Moscow and Washington, with the ministry urging Russians to refrain from non-essential travel to these destinations, especially during the upcoming holidays.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Meeting occurs • 25%
Meeting planned but not held • 25%
No meeting planned • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Trade Agreement • 25%
Summit Meeting • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Unclear or mixed signals • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%