Market
Which state will first officially oppose the gender recognition order by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
California • 25%
New York • 25%
Washington • 25%
Other • 25%
Official state government announcements or legal filings
Story
Trump Signs Executive Order on Monday Recognizing Only Two Genders, Reversing 'X' Markers and Ending Diversity Programs
Jan 22, 2025, 06:50 PM
On Monday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring that the U.S. government will officially recognize only two genders, male and female. This order reverses previous policies allowing for 'X' gender markers on federal documents such as passports. The move has sparked concerns among transgender Americans and is expected to face legal challenges due to its contradiction with existing laws and court rulings, including the Supreme Court's Bostock v. Clayton County decision which extended anti-bias protections to LGBTQ+ workers. The order also aims to end diversity, equity, and inclusion programs within federal agencies, reflecting Trump's broader initiative to roll back such policies established during the Biden administration.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant response • 25%
Majority of states adopt similar policies • 25%
Majority of states oppose or challenge • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Ohio • 25%
Texas • 25%
Florida • 25%
Other • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
No action • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
More than 15 States • 25%
11-15 States • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Sarah McBride • 25%
Ariana Grande • 25%
Other • 25%
Aurora • 25%
11-20 states • 25%
6-10 states • 25%
0-5 states • 25%
More than 20 states • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%