Market
Which countries will engage in diplomatic discussions over Greenland by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. and Denmark • 25%
U.S., Denmark, and China • 25%
U.S., Denmark, and Russia • 25%
All four countries • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of the U.S., Denmark, China, or Russia
Story
Trump Demands Greenland from Denmark for National Security, Threatens High Tariffs Over China, Russia Threats
Jan 7, 2025, 05:26 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has stated that the United States needs Greenland for national security purposes, suggesting that Denmark should relinquish control of the territory to protect the 'free world'. Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on Denmark if they do not agree to transfer Greenland to the U.S. He has cited the strategic value of Greenland in countering threats from China and Russia, claiming that their ships are visible around the territory. Trump also questioned Denmark's legal right to Greenland, suggesting that the population might vote for independence or to join the U.S. if given the opportunity.
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Russia • 25%
Other or None • 25%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Denmark vs China • 25%
Denmark vs Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Denmark vs US • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Both reject negotiations • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
No significant change • 34%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Other outcome • 25%