Market
What will be China's response to U.S. military aid to Taiwan by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military exercises near Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic protests only • 25%
Other retaliatory measures • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Military exercise • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official statements from China's Ministry of National Defense or international news reports
Story
Biden Approves $571M Aid for Taiwan, Includes Abrams Tanks Amid China Tensions
Dec 23, 2024, 11:09 AM
President Joe Biden has approved $571 million in military aid for Taiwan, including Defense Department materials, services, and military education. The aid is part of ongoing U.S. efforts to bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China, which claims Taiwan as its territory. This assistance follows a series of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, including $295 million in military equipment announced earlier and $567 million authorized in September. Additionally, Taiwan recently received 38 Abrams tanks as part of a larger order, along with 300 tactical radio systems. China's Ministry of National Defense has condemned the move, stating it violates the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués. Chinese officials have warned that U.S. military support for Taiwan could escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and undermine regional stability. Taiwan has expressed gratitude for the aid, viewing it as a reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to its defense.
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Economic sanctions on Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. actions • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Military exercises • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
Enhancement of defense infrastructure • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic engagement with US allies • 25%
Economic sanctions on U.S. • 25%
Increased military presence near Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Economic sanctions against China • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Enhanced diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
No significant diplomatic response • 25%
Impose economic sanctions on Taiwan • 25%
Issue a formal protest • 25%
Recall ambassador from U.S. • 25%
Condemnation from China • 25%
Neutral stance from most countries • 25%
Support from US allies • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military exercises near Taiwan • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%