Market
What will be the resolution of the TikTok ban situation by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or major news outlets
Story
US Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban; Trump Pledges to Save App Before January 19 Deadline
Dec 6, 2024, 03:42 PM
A US federal appeals court has unanimously upheld a law requiring Chinese-based ByteDance to divest its popular short-video app TikTok in the United States by January 19, 2025, or face a ban. The court's decision affirms that the law is constitutional, allowing the US government to ban TikTok over national security concerns if ByteDance does not sell the app to an American owner. The ruling is a significant setback for TikTok as it fights for its survival in the US market. The potential ban is complicated by President-elect Donald Trump's opposition; he has pledged during his campaign to "save" TikTok and is expected to reverse the ban.
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Similar markets
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Case ongoing • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Appeal granted, no ban • 25%
Appeal denied, ban enforced • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Settlement reached, operations continue • 25%
Settlement reached • 34%
Injunction granted • 33%
Injunction denied • 33%
TikTok divested • 34%
TikTok granted extension • 33%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok shut down • 25%
Ban blocked, TikTok continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban avoided through sale • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Other • 25%
Political resolution reached • 25%
Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Legal battle ongoing • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%