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What will be the outcome of US-Israel discussions on military strategy against Iran by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Joint Military Operation • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from US or Israeli governments or credible news reports on the outcome of discussions
Story
Trump Weighs Preemptive Strikes on Iran with Possible US-Israel Operation
Dec 13, 2024, 07:59 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering a range of options to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including the possibility of preemptive airstrikes and a US-Israeli coordinated operation, according to a Friday morning report by the Wall Street Journal. Advisers to Trump are concerned that economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts are insufficient to contain Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The military-strike option is now under serious review by his transition team, potentially signaling a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Iran. Discussions also include the possibility of transferring bunker-buster bombs to Israel to facilitate potential strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
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Strike rejected • 25%
Strike postponed • 25%
Strike approved • 25%
No decision • 25%
Unsuccessful attack • 25%
Successful attack with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Successful attack with no retaliation • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Agreement on increased sanctions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other diplomatic measures • 25%
Agreement on joint military action • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Snapback sanctions reimposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
No military action • 25%
Other • 25%
Delayed further • 25%
Modified • 25%
Carried out as planned • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Strike occurs but is unsuccessful • 25%
Strike occurs and is successful • 25%
Strike is canceled • 25%
Strike is postponed indefinitely • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%