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What will be the primary control over the new political reality in Syria by the end of 2025?
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Iran•Syria•Assad•Tehran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•Iraq•Lebanon•Iranian•Israeli•HTS•Israel•Middle East•Hezbollah•US•European•Arab•Sunni Islamist
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sunni Islamist groups • 25%
Assad-aligned remnants • 25%
Kurdish forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies and statements from Syrian political groups
Story
Iran Withdraws IRGC Elite Units From Syria, Dealing Blow to Tehran's Regional Ambitions
Jan 7, 2025, 12:18 PM
Iran has largely withdrawn its military forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime in December, marking a significant shift in Tehran's regional influence. The withdrawal includes elite units from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other militia groups, which have either disbanded or relocated to neighboring countries like Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon. As thousands of Iranian military personnel and their allies fled the country, they were forced to leave behind significant military equipment, much of which was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes or captured by groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This retreat is seen as a major blow to Iran's strategy of using Syria as a linchpin for its 'axis of resistance' against Israel and to project power across the Middle East, including establishing a land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon. US, European, and Arab officials have noted that this development represents a setback for Iran's ambitions in the region, with the new political reality in Syria under Sunni Islamist groups viewing Iran's presence as a threat.
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