Market
What key political changes will occur in Syria by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New elections held • 25%
Constitutional reforms • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Official government announcements and news reports
Story
Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa Vows No Negative Interference in Lebanon After Assad's Ouster
Dec 22, 2024, 11:32 AM
Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has pledged that his country will not engage in negative interference in Lebanon. During a meeting with Lebanese Druze leaders Walid and Taymour Jumblatt on Sunday, Sharaa emphasized that Syria would respect Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security. He stated that Syria would maintain an equal distance from all parties in Lebanon, acknowledging past fears and anxieties Syria has caused in the country. This commitment comes as part of broader efforts to normalize relations with neighboring countries following the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad by Sharaa's group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), earlier this month.
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Coalition government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other • 25%
Stable government established • 25%
Ongoing civil unrest • 25%
Interim government appointed • 25%
Democratic elections held • 25%
Military-led government • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Political reforms • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Social reforms • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Authoritarian regime • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Democratic governance • 25%
Other • 25%
Government led by former regime members • 25%
Inclusive government with opposition • 25%
Government led by opposition forces • 25%
Return of Assad's regime • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stable government formed • 25%
Ongoing political instability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New government established • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
Independent leadership • 25%
No stable leadership • 25%
Pro-Iranian leadership • 25%