How will regional power dynamics shift in Syria by the end of 2025?
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Increased Russian influence • 25%
Increased Western influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analyses from geopolitical think tanks and major news outlets
Bashar al-Assad Overthrown After Nine Years, Sparking Regional Uncertainty and U.S. Support for 360 Tons of Mustard Gas
Dec 13, 2024, 03:59 AM
The recent overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has led to significant geopolitical ramifications, impacting not only Syria but also regional powers such as Iran and Russia. The fall of Assad, who had been in power for over a decade, has raised concerns about the future stability of Syria and the potential for increased jihadist activity in the region. In the aftermath, Syria's capital appears to be returning to normalcy, with streets becoming busier and government institutions gradually resuming operations. However, the uncertainty surrounding the new regime, which may include elements supportive of Israel, has sparked fears of instability and the potential displacement of Palestinians. The collapse has also prompted a reevaluation of the fate of Jewish relics in Syria and raised alarms about securing missing chemical weapons, including over 360 tons of mustard gas. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed support for the regime's downfall, highlighting its significance in altering the power dynamics in the Middle East. This development is viewed as a setback for Vladimir Putin's ambitions to enhance Russia's influence in the region, following years of military support for Assad's regime.
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Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Russian influence • 25%
Iranian dominance • 25%
Increased US involvement • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Increased opposition control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Russian-backed Forces • 25%
Syrian Rebels • 25%
Independent Syrian Government • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russia • 25%
U.S. • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Iran • 25%
Iran • 25%
Israel • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintains neutrality • 25%
Aligns with EU • 25%
Aligns with Russia • 25%
Aligns with USA • 25%
Aligns with regional powers • 25%
Aligns with the West • 25%
Maintains neutrality • 25%
Aligns with Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Balanced influence among the three • 25%
Increased Russian influence • 25%
Increased Turkish influence • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Constitutional reforms • 25%
New elections held • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Pro-Iranian • 25%
Neutral/Other • 25%
Pro-Western • 25%
Pro-Russian • 25%