Market
What will be the outcome of US-China trade negotiations by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the US and Chinese governments
Story
Trump Considers 10% Tariffs on China Over Fentanyl, May Target EU Next Month
Jan 21, 2025, 11:30 PM
President Donald Trump announced that his administration is considering imposing a 10% tariff on China, potentially starting on February 1, citing concerns over China sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada. "We're talking about a tariff of 10 percent on China, based on the fact that they're sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada," Trump said. He also indicated that tariffs may be imposed on the European Union due to trade imbalances. The administration is currently discussing the implementation of these tariffs, which could take effect as early as next month.
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Similar markets
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No changes • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Tariff increase • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Tariff decrease • 25%