Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. and Chinese trade representatives or major news outlets
Story
Trump Nominates Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, Signaling Hawkish Economic Pivot Amid Tariff Concerns
Nov 30, 2024, 11:00 PM
Donald Trump has nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, a move that could have significant implications for U.S.-China trade relations. Analysts suggest that Bessent's appointment may indicate a hawkish economic stance, focusing on dollar dominance, tariffs, and sanctions. This raises questions about whether the U.S. will intensify its economic coercion strategies, particularly in light of Trump's recent threats to impose additional tariffs on China. The nomination has sparked discussions about potential relief for China, despite the ongoing trade tensions. Confirmation of Bessent's appointment remains uncertain as the transition process unfolds.
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Tariffs increased • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Tariffs reduced • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
