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What will be the resolution of ByteDance's negotiations with U.S. government by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful Deal • 25%
No Deal, TikTok Banned • 25%
Temporary Extension Granted • 25%
Ongoing Negotiations • 25%
Official statements from ByteDance or U.S. government
Story
China Signals Willingness for 50-50 TikTok Deal in U.S. Amid Trump's Executive Order
Jan 20, 2025, 01:48 PM
China has signaled its willingness to allow a deal that would keep TikTok operating in the U.S., a shift from its previous stance of opposing any forced sale of the app. This change comes after President Donald Trump expressed openness to a 50-50 joint ownership model between U.S. and Chinese interests. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that companies should independently decide their operations and acquisitions, suggesting a more cooperative approach. ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming's meeting with Elon Musk last year could be pivotal in facilitating this deal. This development follows a U.S. law that banned TikTok, which briefly went offline before being restored after Trump's promise to sign an executive order to extend the period before the law's prohibitions take effect, aiming to facilitate a deal to protect national security.
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Divestment completed • 25%
Divestment ongoing • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Operational changes agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
Divestment • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
International ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Complete divestment • 25%
Partial divestment • 25%
No divestment • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
No divestiture • 25%
Legal challenge delaying divestiture • 25%
Divestiture announced but not completed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Legal resolution favoring US government • 25%
Legal resolution favoring TikTok • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Divestment Completed • 25%
Divestment Announced • 25%
No Divestment • 25%
Extension Granted • 25%