Market
What will be the outcome of Turkish-Israeli tensions over Kurdish support in Syria by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military confrontation occurs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from major international news agencies and official government statements from Turkey and Israel
Story
Turkey Warns It Will Shoot Down Israeli Aircraft Supporting PKK, YPG in Syria After U.S. Drone Incident
Dec 14, 2024, 06:05 AM
Turkey has issued a warning regarding potential military action against Israeli aircraft in Syria. Reports indicate that the Turkish General Staff has received orders to shoot down Israeli warplanes if they provide support to Kurdish forces, specifically the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and YPG (People's Protection Units). This comes amid claims that Syrian Kurdish groups have sought assistance from Israel, including air support against Turkish-backed forces. Turkish media has emphasized that the Kurdish factions are considered adversaries of the new Syrian government, further complicating the already tense dynamics in the region. The situation escalated following an incident where a U.S. drone was reportedly shot down by PKK militants, who mistakenly believed it to be a Turkish aircraft.
View original story
Similar markets
Successful mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations with the US • 25%
Deteriorated relations with the US • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Kurdish forces maintain control • 25%
Turkish military victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military cooperation agreement • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Diplomatic normalization • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Coordination rejected • 25%
Formal coordination established • 25%
No cooperation • 25%
Informal cooperation only • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%