Market
What will be the outcome of Trump's back-channel diplomacy with Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from involved governments or credible news sources
Story
Trump May Pursue Back-Channel Diplomacy to End Ukraine War, Financial Times Reports, Risking Security Guarantees
Dec 28, 2024, 06:14 PM
The Financial Times reports that Donald Trump, as the incoming U.S. president, may pursue back-channel diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Trump's business-oriented approach and desire to avoid military conflicts could lead to the U.S. facilitating significant agreements with Russia. However, this strategy raises concerns about Ukraine potentially being pressured into peace negotiations without adequate security guarantees. Experts warn that such a move could compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and security, particularly in light of ongoing aggressive actions from Russia.
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Preliminary talks only • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Formal peace agreement • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
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Partial withdrawal of Russian forces • 25%
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Minor agreements reached • 25%
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No agreements reached • 25%