Market
What will be the outcome of Trump's initial diplomatic efforts with Russia by June 30, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Ukraine•Middle East•World War III•Make America Great Again•Washington DC•Trump•Russian•Vladimir Putin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing negotiations with no agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements from the White House or Kremlin, or coverage by major news outlets
Story
Trump Pledges to End Ukraine War and Prevent World War III at MAGA Rally, Plans Call With Putin
Jan 20, 2025, 04:42 AM
Donald Trump, set to be inaugurated as the U.S. president, has pledged to end the war in Ukraine, stop the chaos in the Middle East, and prevent World War III from occurring. He made these statements at a Make America Great Again (MAGA) Victory Rally in Washington DC, emphasizing the urgency of these issues by stating that the world is closer to World War III than many realize. Trump has also instructed his aides to arrange a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin within days of his inauguration, with the goal of setting up a face-to-face meeting in the coming months to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine.
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Other outcomes • 25%
No progress • 25%
Preliminary talks only • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks canceled • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%
Minor agreements reached • 25%
Significant progress towards peace • 25%
Meeting results in conflict escalation • 25%
Meeting with significant agreements • 25%
No meeting takes place • 25%
Meeting with no significant agreements • 25%
Agreement on further talks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement without security guarantees • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement with security guarantees • 25%
Continued negotiations • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%