Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations by April 19, 2025, if extension is granted?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Further extension granted • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, the purchasing company, or the U.S. government
Story
U.S. Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban; ByteDance Must Sell by Jan. 19 or Face Ban
Dec 6, 2024, 04:00 PM
On December 6, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit unanimously upheld a law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest its ownership of the popular short video app in the United States by January 19, 2025, or face a ban. The legislation, passed by Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden in April, aims to address national security concerns over TikTok's Chinese ownership. With 170 million U.S. users, TikTok faces a potential nationwide ban if ByteDance fails to sell the platform to a non-Chinese company by the deadline. The court's decision affirms the constitutionality of the law, allowing the U.S. government to take action to protect national interests. The President has the authority to grant a 90-day extension if there is progress toward divestment.
View original story
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Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Continues without restrictions • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
No change, TikTok operates as is • 25%
Extension granted, TikTok operates • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Ban Overturned • 25%
Ban Extended • 25%
Partnership/Acquisition • 25%
Ban Enforced • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%