Market
What will be the outcome of the US TikTok ban by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban remains in effect • 25%
Ban lifted permanently • 25%
Temporary reprieve granted • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the US government or TikTok
Story
TikTok Ceases Operations in US Due to Federal Ban, Affects 170 Million Users; Trump Considers 90-Day Reprieve
Jan 19, 2025, 04:08 AM
TikTok has ceased operations in the United States, becoming unavailable to its 170 million American users as a federal law banning the app took effect on Sunday. The app was removed from Apple and Google app stores, and users attempting to access it were met with a message stating, 'A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the U.S. Unfortunately, that means you can't use TikTok for now.' The message also mentioned that President-elect Donald Trump has indicated he will work with TikTok on a solution to reinstate the app once he takes office on Monday, suggesting a potential 90-day reprieve from the ban. The ban stems from national security concerns related to TikTok's Chinese ownership by ByteDance, prompting the U.S. Supreme Court to uphold the law on Friday.
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TikTok divested • 34%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok granted extension • 33%
US government wins • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
No decision • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ongoing legal battle • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban partially lifted with restrictions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban lifted completely • 25%
Ban remains in place • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Legal battle ongoing • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban modified • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Ban blocked, TikTok continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok shut down • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%