Market
Outcome of the first phase of Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement by February 1, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire commences successfully • 25%
Ceasefire delayed but commences • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Partial implementation with issues • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli government or Hamas, reputable news agencies
Story
Netanyahu Halts Gaza Ceasefire Until Hamas Provides List of 33 Hostages on Sunday
Jan 18, 2025, 06:16 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel will not proceed with a ceasefire in Gaza, set to begin on Sunday, until it receives a list of the 33 hostages to be released by Hamas in the first phase of the agreement. The ceasefire involves the release of hostages and prisoners from both sides, with 98 Israeli hostages to be exchanged for about 1,100 Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel will not tolerate violations of the agreement and holds Hamas solely responsible for any breaches. He has also warned that Israel reserves the right to resume hostilities if the agreement is not adhered to in all its phases.
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Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Exchange fails • 25%
Complete exchange as planned • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
No further developments • 25%
Additional prisoner releases • 25%
Further hostage releases • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%