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What will be the outcome of the rebel offensive against Assad by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Rebels gain significant territory • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Assad regains control • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera
Story
Iran to Send Missiles, Drones, and Advisors to Syria Amid Major Rebel Offensive Against Assad
Dec 6, 2024, 11:44 AM
Senior Iranian officials have told Reuters that Iran intends to send missiles, drones, and military equipment to Syria, as well as increase the number of its military advisors, to support President Bashar al-Assad in his battle against rebels who have recently launched a significant offensive. Tehran has taken all necessary steps to enhance its military presence in Syria and is providing intelligence and satellite support. While Iranian forces are prepared to deploy ground troops if requested, Damascus has not yet made such a request. The move comes as rebel forces push a lightning offensive, posing the biggest challenge to Assad's rule in years.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Government regains lost ground • 25%
Rebels make significant gains but not Damascus • 25%
Rebels gain control of Damascus • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Government forces repel rebels • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels fail to encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels retreat from Damascus • 25%
Rebels partially encircle Damascus • 25%
Rebels control Damascus • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Government forces regain control • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Rebels gain significant territory • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate ensues • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Rebels encircle but do not capture Damascus • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no decisive control • 25%
Government retains control of Damascus • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Government regains lost territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Rebels take full control • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Control fluctuates • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Rebels retreat • 25%
Rebels halted before reaching Damascus • 25%
Stalemate • 25%