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Outcome of Syrian rebels' advance on Damascus by February 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
Government regains lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Reports from major news agencies and official sources
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Syrian Rebels Reach 5 km from Damascus After Capturing Sanamayn, Begin Final Phase to Encircle Capital
Dec 7, 2024, 12:24 PM
Syrian rebel forces have advanced to within 5 kilometers of Damascus after capturing the city of Sanamayn, according to opposition commander Hassan Abdul Ghany. The rebels announced they have begun implementing the final phase of encircling the capital. Advancing in rural Damascus, they are now around 10 kilometers from the city center. Sanamayn is located 50 kilometers north of Daraa, which rebel forces seized the previous night. The Syrian defense ministry denies that the army has retreated from positions near the capital.
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Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
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Rebels encircle but do not capture Damascus • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
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Rebels retreat • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
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Rebels fully encircle Damascus • 25%
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Rebels capture Damascus • 25%
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Other • 25%
Assad Regime retains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government regains lost ground • 25%
Rebels gain control of Damascus • 25%
Rebels make significant gains but not Damascus • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Rebels control Damascus • 25%
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Stalemate • 25%
