Market
What will be the outcome of the Lebanon ceasefire negotiations by February 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Extended Ceasefire • 25%
Temporary Extension • 25%
No Extension • 25%
New Agreement • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or international organizations
Story
White House Urges Short Ceasefire Extension in Lebanon Amid Israeli Withdrawal
Jan 24, 2025, 06:57 PM
The White House has called for an urgent, short, and temporary extension of the ceasefire in Lebanon, emphasizing its necessity to ensure the safety of both Israeli and Lebanese citizens and to prevent Hezbollah from posing a threat. The statement comes as the current ceasefire, brokered in November, approaches its 60-day deadline. The Trump administration is committed to enabling Israeli citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel while supporting Lebanese President Aoun and his new government. The White House expressed satisfaction with the Israeli military's initiation of withdrawal from central and southern Lebanon regions, highlighting the need for continued peace efforts in the region.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire Renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Successful withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire collapse • 25%
Extended deadline • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Significantly violated • 25%
Partially violated • 25%
Broken • 25%
Fully intact • 25%
New ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire collapsed with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire remains intact • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Open warfare resumes • 25%
New peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposes ceasefire, supports Hezbollah • 25%
Supports ceasefire, takes action against Hezbollah • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Supports ceasefire, no action against Hezbollah • 25%