Market
What will be the Lebanese government's stance on the ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supports ceasefire, takes action against Hezbollah • 25%
Supports ceasefire, no action against Hezbollah • 25%
Opposes ceasefire, supports Hezbollah • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Official statements from the Lebanese government reported by major news outlets.
Story
Israel to Treat Lebanon and Hezbollah as One if Ceasefire Collapses
Dec 3, 2024, 10:45 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stern warning to Lebanon, stating that if the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah collapses, Israel will no longer differentiate between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah. Katz emphasized that there would be no tolerance for Lebanon in such a scenario, and Israel would respond forcefully, treating Hezbollah and Lebanon as one entity. He urged the Lebanese army to enforce the ceasefire and keep Hezbollah away from the Litani River, warning that if war resumes, Israel would strike harder and deeper into Lebanon, including targeting Hezbollah's stronghold in Da'ahiya and Beirut.
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Similar markets
Broken • 25%
Fully intact • 25%
Partially violated • 25%
Significantly violated • 25%
Ceasefire Renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Escalation into further conflict • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resolution and return to normalcy • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
Partially maintained • 25%
Fully maintained • 25%
Violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Lebanon • 25%
Ceasefire maintained • 25%
Ceasefire violated by both • 25%
Diplomatic talks with Israel • 25%
Formal complaint to the UN • 25%
Increase in military readiness • 25%
No significant action • 25%