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Status of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire remains intact • 25%
Ceasefire broken with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire collapsed with major conflict • 25%
New ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Official statements from the governments of Israel and Lebanon or credible international news agencies
Story
IDF Fires Warning Shots, Apprehends Suspects in Southern Lebanon on January 26, 2025
Jan 26, 2025, 11:12 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted operations in southern Lebanon over the past few days, targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure. The IDF, operating under the Northern Command, reported carrying out strikes to 'remove threats,' and successfully demolished Hezbollah's weapon depots and active observation posts. These actions were in line with the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon. Additionally, on January 26, 2025, IDF troops operating in the region fired warning shots to deter threats after identifying suspects, including Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah supporters, approaching their positions near villages where the Israeli military is deployed. Several suspects were apprehended, believed to pose an imminent threat to the troops, and are currently being interrogated.
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Violated • 25%
Partially maintained • 25%
Fully maintained • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
Broken • 25%
Fully intact • 25%
Partially violated • 25%
Significantly violated • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, no further conflict • 25%
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
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Successful withdrawal • 25%
Extended deadline • 25%
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
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Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Breached • 25%
Ceasefire Maintained • 25%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
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Continued Israeli military presence • 25%
Ongoing conflict with sporadic clashes • 25%
Peaceful with no military presence • 25%
Israeli withdrawal completed • 25%
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New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%