Market
What will be the outcome of the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
4
Hezbollah•Hassan Nasrallah•Israeli•Wafiq Safa•Beirut•Nasrallah•Lebanon•Safa•Israel•Litani River•Naim Kassem•Nabih Berri•Amos Hochstein
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Official reports from international bodies like the United Nations or major news agencies
Story
Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah Killed in Israeli Airstrike, 60-Day Ceasefire Follows
Jan 5, 2025, 02:30 PM
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, 2023, while inside the militant group's war operations room, according to new details disclosed by a senior Hezbollah official, Wafiq Safa. The airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs resulted in the deaths of six people, including Nasrallah, who was meeting underground with other senior officials. The assassination escalated tensions, leading to an all-out war that devastated parts of southern and eastern Lebanon for two months until a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect on November 27. Safa confirmed that Nasrallah led the battle and war from the location where he was killed. Hezbollah plans to bury Nasrallah following the 60-day ceasefire with Israel, which also requires Hezbollah to move its fighters and infrastructure north of the Litani River and for Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon within the same timeframe. Tensions remain high, with Hezbollah's current leader Naim Kassem warning of potential strikes if Israeli forces do not fully withdraw by the end of the month. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who negotiated the ceasefire, indicated that further discussions with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein are expected.
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Similar markets
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Hezbollah initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, no further conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Israel initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Ended with Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Breached • 25%
Ceasefire Maintained • 25%
Fully maintained • 25%
Violated • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
Partially maintained • 25%