Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas prisoner swap deal by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Deal fully executed • 25%
Partial execution • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government and international news reports
Story
Netanyahu Announces Deal with Hamas to Release Israeli Hostages, Includes Ceasefire and Prisoner Swap
Jan 17, 2025, 02:12 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that a deal has been reached to secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. After overcoming last-minute snags, Israeli officials have finalized the agreement, which reportedly includes a ceasefire and prisoner swap. Netanyahu is set to convene his security cabinet and government to approve the agreement, and families of the hostages have been informed about the deal.
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Deal breakdown • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
All hostages and prisoners exchanged • 25%
No exchange • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Exchange completed as planned • 25%
Exchange not completed • 25%
Exchange completed with additional terms • 25%
Exchange partially completed • 25%
Failure • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Completed as planned • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%